TSLA Quant — Tesla $TSLA Catalyst Tracker & Quant Price Model
Real-time quantitative tracker for Tesla ($TSLA) stock. Tracks key catalysts including Cybercab production, FSD v14.3 rollout, robotaxi expansion, Optimus robot, Megapack energy deployments, and earnings milestones. Updated daily.
Current Quant Model Price Target
The TSLA Quant model outputs a probability-weighted price target based on 34 tracked catalysts. As of April 7, 2026, the model price is $646, reflecting FSD v14.3 release, Intel joining Terafab, and confirmed EU brand recovery with Germany +315% YoY registrations.
Key Tesla Catalysts Tracked
- Cybercab Mass Production — Giga Texas, April 2026 start confirmed, likelihood 0.92
- FSD v14.3 Released — Ground-up rewrite: new RL training, new vision system, new compiler. Apr 7, 2026.
- Robotaxi Austin — 94 vehicles, 1M+ miles driven, 4,700 mi/day pace
- Robotaxi Multi-City — Las Vegas, Dallas expansion imminent, likelihood 0.60
- Optimus Production — Gen 3 reveal expected April 2026, likelihood 0.60
- FSD Europe (Netherlands) — RDW approval expected April 10, 2026
- Terafab Chip Factory — Intel joined project Apr 7, 2026. 1 TW/year AI compute target.
- Cortex 2.0 — 250MW AI cluster activating April 2026
- Q1 2026 Deliveries — 358,023 official, Q2 earnings call April 22, 2026
About the Model
Each catalyst is assigned a likelihood score (0–1) and a portfolio weight based on estimated price impact. Scores update daily from news, regulatory filings, fleet telemetry, and earnings data. The model is not financial advice.
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tslaquant.com — Updated daily. Built for serious Tesla investors.